A widely circulated leaked draft of a US-brokered peace proposal lays out 28 points intended to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. The document contains a mixture of provisions that Kyiv might accept and others that would amount to major concessions to Moscow — notably territorial arrangements and limits on Ukraine’s military — but many details remain vague and contested. Territory and security: major sticking points One of the most explosive elements would see parts of the Donbas that remain under Ukrainian control designated as a demilitarized buffer and internationally recognised as Russian territory, even while Russian forces would be required not to enter that zone. The proposal singles out towns in Donetsk Oblast — population centres that have been hard-fought battlegrounds — for this status. For Ukrainians and their leaders, surrendering areas where hundreds of thousands live would be politically and emotionally fraught. The draft also calls for Ukraine to cut its armed forces to 600,000 personnel. Ukrainian military strength has grown substantially since the 2022 invasion, from roughly 250,000 to estimates near 880,000 active personnel last year. Kyiv views restrictions on its armed forces as interference in its sovereignty; officials have repeatedly said they will not accept any formal recognition of occupied regions as Russian or limits on their right to self-defence. Security guarantees in the draft are nebulous. The text promises ‘‘robust’’ protections and a coordinated military response if Russia attacks, with restoration of sanctions and scrapping of the deal in that event — but it does not specify who would provide those guarantees or whether they would mirror NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence commitment. That uncertainty would be a major issue for Ukraine before any agreement could be signed. Political and constitutional conditions The plan asks Ukraine to enshrine non‑alignment from NATO into its constitution and for NATO to add a clause preventing Ukraine’s future admission. At the same time, the draft envisages Ukraine being eligible for EU membership and receiving expedited market access while its application is assessed. Kyiv’s constitution currently includes the right to choose alliances, and Ukrainian representatives have listed joining both NATO and the EU among their red lines. The document would also bar NATO troop deployments on Ukrainian soil, suggest placement of some European aircraft in Poland, and require Ukraine to be a non‑nuclear state. It calls for snap elections within 100 days of a deal — theoretically possible only if martial law were lifted — and proposes a comprehensive non-aggression treaty between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. Economic and legal consequences On frozen Russian assets, the leaked draft proposes using $100 billion to fund US-led reconstruction and investment programmes in Ukraine, with half the profits going to the United States. Europe would be expected to contribute another $100 billion. Other frozen reserves would be channelled through a proposed US‑Russian investment vehicle, enabling some Russian funds to be returned. Observers note the shortfall: wide estimates for rebuilding Ukraine run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, well above the figures cited in the draft. The plan also includes provisions aimed at reintegrating Russia into the global economy and readmitting it to forums such as the G8 — proposals that would be politically fraught while Russian leaders face an International Criminal Court arrest warrant and Western capitals remain divided. What the draft omits and how it has been framed The draft does not impose explicit, comprehensive limits on Ukraine’s weapons industry or some of the long‑range systems Kyiv has been developing. It contains a clause that would void security guarantees if Ukraine launched missile strikes on Moscow or St. Petersburg, but it stops short of detailed arms restrictions. US backers described the document as a brainstorm of possible ideas and pushed an ‘‘aggressive’’ timeline for progress, with reports suggesting Kyiv could face a near‑term deadline to respond. Senator Marco Rubio, one of the Americans publicly linked to the drafting process, called the list a compilation of possible measures. European officials, including Germany’s foreign minister, have said they do not view the points as a definitive plan and that key European institutions had not formally seen the text when it leaked. Who would gain — and who would lose? Analysts warn the package appears tilted in ways that would benefit Moscow: formalising control of some occupied territories, easing Russia’s international isolation in stages, and proposing a general amnesty for participants in the conflict — a measure likely to be bitterly opposed in Kyiv and many European capitals. At the same time, the draft contains items that might placate Western concerns, such as pledges of security guarantees and commitments tied to sanctions’ reinstatement should Russia resume aggression. The financial arrangements raise questions about who pays and who profits. The US would stand to receive a share of returns on invested frozen assets, while Europe would be asked to shoulder much of the reconstruction bill. Russia would regain partial access to frozen funds and a pathway toward international economic reintegration. The bottom line The leaked draft represents a starting point for discussion rather than a finished accord. It contains compromises that would be deeply controversial in Kyiv, while leaving many technical and enforcement details unspecified. With high-level contacts reported between US envoys and Russian officials during drafting, and with Moscow calling the text a potential basis for talks, the document has already sharpened diplomatic debate about how — or whether — a negotiated end to the war could be achieved. Ukraine’s leaders have been unambiguous that any deal must not permanently cede territory or undermine their sovereign right to self-defence.
