Nigel Farage has often been accused of hyperbole over his many audacious political claims. Some don’t, or have not yet, come true.

But others do, notably the biggest of them all - Brexit. So it’s worth taking note when the Reform UK leader says that two-party politics in Britain is dead. If he’s correct then Mr Farage is about to mastermind the biggest political upheaval in more than 100 years, since Labour displaced the old Liberal party in 1922.

Sarah Pochin’s dramatic by-election victory in Runcon and Helsby also reconfirms another of one of his repeated claims, that his party is going to cause a “political earthquake”.

Reform’s stunning defeat of Labour, by just six votes, is the latest shockwave following last summer’s general election in which they won five seats.

Rupert Lowe’s ousting aside, the party's rise appears unstoppable.

Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is now the Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire after thrashing her rivals and Reform has surged in local councils across England.

From Durham to Kent and Northumberland to Staffordshire, the Right wing party is on the march.

Polling mastermind John Curtice said the results “quite clearly” prove that Reform is a threat both to Labour and the Tories.

He said that the old left-right divide no longer explained British politics and that cultural issues were now a key factor.

“Politics is no longer one-dimensional,” he said.

It’s not just Reform who are coming to the party, so to speak, although they are clearly the cheerleaders, as the Lib Dems and the Greens are showing a surge in support.

Recent polls continue to have Reform on top with 26%, Labour in second on 24% and the Tories in third place at 22%.

Ed Davey’s party is not that far behind in fourth on 14% with the Greens in fifth on 10%.

A recent mega poll showed Reform is on course to emerge as the third-largest party in a general election.

Analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72 with the Lib Dems securing 58 seats, the SNP 37 and the Green Party on two.

However, Reform’s ambition isn’t to come third.

Electoral Calculus estimates that the party doesn’t have to grow much further than that to topple Labour.

With 28% of the public's vote, the political pollster says Reform would become the largest party in parliament with just under 200 seats.

If their vote share increases to 31%, Reform would get an overall Commons majority and Nigel Farage would most likely be Prime Minister.

It’s a far cry from the 1951 general election in which Labour and the Conservatives between them secured 98% of the vote.

By 2024 that had dropped to 59% and polling suggests that will continue to plummet by the next general election which is expected in 2029.

Farage and his team will look to recent history for similar examples. The DUP replaced the UUP as the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland while Emmanuel Macron and his En Marche! party came from nowhere to storm to the French Presidency.

They are also taking inspiration from the success of right-wing populist movements in Germany and France.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally are threatening to do the unimaginable and topple the establishment.

Reform is already imagining the unimaginable.

Their success hardly comes as a surprise.

You don’t have to look too far to get an idea of just how much of an impact they are having around the country.

Step out onto the streets of most constituencies in Britain and you’ll find one of the party’s brand new branch offices.

They have mushroomed at a staggering rate since July’s general election from zero to more than 500.

Every seat in Wales and Scotland now has an office and, very soon, party insiders say, they will have one in all constituencies in the UK.

Grassroots support is also rocketing.

A membership ticker on the Reform UK website proudly boasts it is the nation’s “fastest growing” political party and now has an army of members greater than the Coinservatives.

At the time of writing membership had hit 227,000.

It means that Reform now has the second biggest membership of any political party in the UK, behind only Labour which has 309,000 supporters.

Why is this important?

Grassroots members are the essential backbone of a party, they’re more likely to get involved in leafletting and campaigning at elections.

This week’s election shows it’s already working.

Next year’s elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly will be another crucial step on this path, if events go as Mr Farage hopes.

Reform believes they could become the largest party in Wales.

The other vital area in which Reform’s numbers are surging is online.

Nigel Farage is undoubtedly the king of social media.

Across X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram and YouTube he has an enormous following of 5.4 million.

This is more than twice the number of Sir Keir Starmer (2.6 million), and 17 times higher than Mrs Badenoch’s 320,000.

Traditional media cut-through is essential, but in 2025 social media is increasingly where voters get their information.

While most of its supporters are still older white men, according to YouGov's post-election analysis, Reform’s social media dominance has fuelled a surge in support among younger age groups, including young men aged 18-24.

Of course, things can change rapidly in politics and there is, most likely, still four years until the next national vote.

Four years ago Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, with a booming majority. Since then, we’ve had three Prime Ministers and a change in government.

The Conservative party is under new leadership with Mrs Badonoch at the helm. She embarked on a frantic round of expectation management in the run-up to the local elections, declaring the results would be “very, very difficult” for her party.

Mrs Badenoch will be judged on how her party performed compared to rivals such as Labour and Reform.

But in a sense she was really competing against Boris Johnson, back when Boris was still popular.

She also faced a threat not just from Reform, on the right, but also from resurgent Liberal Democrats.

There’s a strong argument for saying the poor Conservative result should not be blamed on Mrs Badenoch.

Her tentative start to life as Tory leader has flickered into life in recent weeks.

But politics isn’t fair and these results will encourage speculation about whether Tories need a change of direction or even a change of leader.

That or a pact with Reform.

On the evidence of the latest election results Reform doesn’t need any help.