One man is clear favourite to replace Pope Francis, according to a former Vatican insider who says the real power struggle has already played out behind the scenes. Charles Collins, 52, spent 16 years working in Rome at Vatican Radio and correctly predicted the result of the 2005 papal conclave – right down to the name, Pope Benedict. He says even though voting will not officially begin until May 7, the decision-making is well underway.

Now managing editor of Crux – Taking the Catholic Pulse, Mr Collins believes Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa is the man in the frame. He said: “I think the most likely candidate is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa. I think because one, he is Italian. Two he doesn’t really fit in either the liberal or conservative schools.

“He has traditional Catholic views, but he is not playing a game. And three, because he is in the Holy Land (Jerusalem).

“He understands how Catholics are living in a precarious state in many parts of the world.”

Mr Collins said he believes the new pope will choose the name Francis II – but not as a tribute to the late pontiff.

He said: “I think he is going to become Francis II, and not because of his support for Pope Francis.

"But because he is a Franciscan friar, and if he comes after Pope Francis and doesn’t choose the name Francis, it would be like a slap in the face to his religious order.”

Mr Collins accurately predicted that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger would win the 2005 conclave on the fourth ballot and adopt the name Benedict – and believes the voting process has not changed much since.

He said: “There will be one vote on the first evening, and everyone’s going to vote for their friends.

“The real voting happens the next day, and that’s when we see who the people (candidates) are.

“That is when people are going to go ‘which one of these top earners do I want?’ and then you go onto the third vote.

“If in the third vote, someone gets over 50%, that person will be voted in as the next pope in the fourth vote.”

He added: “It is possible that you might see three big candidates in the third vote, and you see it going to five or six votes. People now know who they want, and they know what they are looking for.”

Mr Collins also rejected the idea of high-stakes drama during the actual conclave, saying the real arguments happen long before the doors are locked.

He explained: “There is infighting, people are getting together to talk about who they want.

“There are things being planned, all that stuff has already happened – it’s been happening for years. Once they get into the conclave, it stops happening.”

Cardinals are broadly divided into four blocs, said Mr Collins, namely conservatives, progressives, those from the developing world, and the Italians – but each group already knows who it’s backing.

He continued: “I am pretty sure that the different factions already know who their candidate is.

“Right now, they are trying to get people in other factions to support their candidate. That’s the only kind of debates that are happening now, but when the conclave begins – all of that stuff’s done.

“I freely admit that there will be some kind of arguments happening. But generally speaking, that doesn’t happen.”

As of May 2, 2025, Paddy Power lists Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the frontrunner to succeed Pope Francis, with odds of 11/4. He is followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 7/2, and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi at 4/1. Cardinal Pizzaballa is currently offered at 7/1.