French presidential favourite and National Rally (RN) chief Marine Le Pen has been banned from running in the 2027 election. If elected, the anti-mass migration and Eurosceptic Le Pen could have potentially blown up the EU project. Instead, the RN chief and 24 party officials were accused of embezzling European Parliament funds.
While Le Pen will avoid the indignity of a custodial sentence – her four-year term is divided between tagging and a suspended sentence – the court's decision appears to have smashed her political aspirations to pieces. At least for now.
With President Emmanuel Macron ineligible to run again, Le Pen was odds-on favourite as his successor. While this column is no place to judge the merits of the case, there is little doubt her supporters will view the judgement as politically motivated, drawing comparisons with legal issues President Donald Trump faced before his second term, branded 'lawfare' by supporters.
Ironically, the decision – if upheld – could catalyse support for RN and whoever runs in Le Pen's place. This is especially the case since the RN chief will remain an MP. Indeed – just as Trump's legal problems no doubt stimulated anti-establishment support for the now-President – so this judgement could see RN win by a landslide.
Again, it isn't for this column to pass judgement on the case. But if anybody believes the decision was politically motivated, the eventual consequence might be an even bigger victory for the populist anti-EU Right. In fact, even if the decision is reversed upon appeal before the 2027 presidential election, RN could still see its vote share rise – whether in that instance Le Pen runs or not – since the fact the RN leader was banned at all could catalyse support for the party.
France is a politically febrile and increasingly Eurosceptic country. The court's decision today may have unintended consequences which could rip the very fabric of the EU and Brussels consensus apart.
